Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on November 12?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $590 held · ends Nov 12

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$590.21

Combined PnL

$34.11

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 77.7¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$569.25

Total Shares628

Combined PnL+$50.29

Yes2 traders

Total Value$20.95

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$16.17

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 82.2¢	$483.89	$531.83	+$47.94	61% 1144-746 (1890)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.1¢	$20.11	$19.36	-$0.75	54% 512-439 (951)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$14.96	$18.06	+$3.1	66% 4097-2123 (6220)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.5¢	$24.72	$13.72	-$11.01	68% 2062-950 (3012)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$12.41	$7.24	-$5.17	31% 264-600 (864)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$483.89

Value

$531.83

PnL

+$47.94

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.11

Value

$19.36

PnL

-$0.75

Record

54%

512-439 (951)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$14.96

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$3.1

Record

66%

4097-2123 (6220)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.72

Value

$13.72

PnL

-$11.01

Record

68%

2062-950 (3012)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.41

Value

$7.24

PnL

-$5.17

Record

31%

264-600 (864)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.5%

77.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.