Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $155 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$154.75
-$0.28
95.7¢ → 97.1¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $65.9 | $65.99 | +$0.09 | 32% 299-629 (928) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $38.68 | $39.31 | +$0.63 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $29.44 | $29.13 | -$0.3 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $12.09 | $12.78 | +$0.69 | 55% 581-483 (1064) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $6.92 | $6.84 | -$0.08 | 43% 386-510 (896) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $2.01 | $0.7 | -$1.31 | 68% 2070-957 (3027) |
Invested
$65.9
Value
$65.99
PnL
+$0.09
Record
32%
299-629 (928)
Invested
$38.68
Value
$39.31
PnL
+$0.63
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$29.44
Value
$29.13
PnL
-$0.3
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.78
PnL
+$0.69
Record
55%
581-483 (1064)
Invested
$6.92
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$0.08
Record
43%
386-510 (896)
Invested
$2.01
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$1.31
Record
68%
2070-957 (3027)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.