Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on November 12?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$122.16

Combined PnL

-$50.76

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$120.92

Total Shares121

Combined PnL+$0.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.86

Total Shares576

Combined PnL-$51.48

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$39.66	$39.96	+$0.3	53% 6040-5408 (11448)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$34.91	$34.97	+$0.06	25% 90-272 (362)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.41	$15.4	-$0.02	42% 814-1136 (1950)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$9.74	$9.99	+$0.26	53% 866-756 (1622)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.02	$7.03	+$0.01	47% 521-590 (1111)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.15	$5.15	-$0.01	47% 506-567 (1073)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.88	$5	+$0.12	35% 393-725 (1118)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.44	$3.43	-$0	63% 445-264 (709)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.12	$0.61	-$36.51	60% 1155-771 (1926)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.22	$0.25	-$14.97	64% 2127-1183 (3310)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.66

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

6040-5408 (11448)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$34.91

Value

$34.97

PnL

+$0.06

Record

25%

90-272 (362)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.41

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

814-1136 (1950)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.74

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

47%

521-590 (1111)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

506-567 (1073)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

35%

393-725 (1118)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

445-264 (709)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.12

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$36.51

Record

60%

1155-771 (1926)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.22

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$14.97

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.