Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on November 12?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $124 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$124.49

Combined PnL

-$66.28

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$122.08

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$0

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.41

Total Shares737

Combined PnL-$66.28

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.92	$79.92	+$0	99% 601-5 (606)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	40% 1474-2196 (3670)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.03	$7.03	+$0	63% 445-264 (709)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.15	$5.15	+$0	44% 501-627 (1128)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.12	$1.23	-$35.9	60% 1155-771 (1926)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.22	$0.5	-$14.72	64% 2127-1183 (3310)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.25	$0.37	-$5.98	49% 471-500 (971)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.86	$0.26	-$8.05	37% 3439-5885 (9324)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.03	-$0.88	30% 2939-6893 (9832)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.78	$0.03	-$0.75	35% 512-942 (1454)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.92

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

601-5 (606)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1474-2196 (3670)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$7.03

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

445-264 (709)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

501-627 (1128)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.12

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$35.9

Record

60%

1155-771 (1926)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.22

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$14.72

Record

64%

2127-1183 (3310)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.25

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$5.98

Record

49%

471-500 (971)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.86

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$8.05

Record

37%

3439-5885 (9324)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.88

Record

30%

2939-6893 (9832)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.75

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.