Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$164.11
$1.69
98.2¢ → 99.7¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $92.63 | $94.43 | +$1.8 | 31% 275-613 (888) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $34.49 | $34.66 | +$0.17 | 99% 252-2 (254) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.9 | +$0.08 | 51% 4631-4518 (9149) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $4.88 | $4.97 | +$0.09 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $10.87 | $0.16 | -$0.44 | 54% 533-457 (990) |
Invested
$92.63
Value
$94.43
PnL
+$1.8
Record
31%
275-613 (888)
Invested
$34.49
Value
$34.66
PnL
+$0.17
Record
99%
252-2 (254)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
51%
4631-4518 (9149)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.88
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$0.09
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Invested
$10.87
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$0.44
Record
54%
533-457 (990)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.