Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on November 11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 82¢ · $731 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$731.15
$44.01
70.7¢ → 82¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+75 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $465.76 | $506.64 | +$40.88 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $88.27 | $93.17 | +$4.9 | 28% 221-563 (784) |
HE hello.67ARB<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $105.06 | $88.27 | -$16.79 | 68% 2060-948 (3008) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.4¢ | $58.81 | $61.84 | +$3.03 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $46.25 | $26.43 | -$19.82 | |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $28.96 | $27.63 | -$1.33 | 83% 496-101 (597) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $15.88 | $15.45 | -$0.43 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
Invested
$465.76
Value
$506.64
PnL
+$40.88
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$88.27
Value
$93.17
PnL
+$4.9
Record
28%
221-563 (784)
Invested
$105.06
Value
$88.27
PnL
-$16.79
Record
68%
2060-948 (3008)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.96
Value
$27.63
PnL
-$1.33
Record
83%
496-101 (597)
Invested
$15.88
Value
$15.45
PnL
-$0.43
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.