Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $579 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$579.08
$20.41
72.5¢ → 70¢
-3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 72.5¢ | $373.37 | $393.77 | +$20.4 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $98.77 | $102.9 | +$4.13 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.9¢ | $68.26 | $73.26 | +$5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $30.51 | $29.64 | -$0.87 | |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $66.46 | $68.79 | +$2.33 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $18.41 | $9.62 | -$2.41 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $3.63 | +$0.18 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $0.45 | $0.38 | -$0.07 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
Invested
$373.37
Value
$393.77
PnL
+$20.4
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$98.77
Value
$102.9
PnL
+$4.13
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.46
Value
$68.79
PnL
+$2.33
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$18.41
Value
$9.62
PnL
-$2.41
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.63
PnL
+$0.18
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$0.07
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.