Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on November 11?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 66¢ · $415 held · ends Nov 11

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$414.55

Combined PnL

-$1.15

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$7.38

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$0.32

No2 traders

Total Value$10.03

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$0.83

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$184.11	$228.71	+$44.6	30% 246-584 (830)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.1¢	$79.94	$140.99	+$61.05
└ No leg	Noavg 76.6¢	$104.17	$87.72	-$16.45
HE hello.67ARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$161.1	$168.45	+$7.34	69% 2062-948 (3010)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.6¢	$78.51	$101.04	+$22.53
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$82.59	$67.41	-$15.18
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.1¢	$20.12	$7.38	-$0.32	54% 401-336 (737)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79¢	$7.2	$6.48	-$0.73	82% 516-115 (631)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.55	-$0.1	37% 3112-5362 (8474)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$184.11

Value

$228.71

PnL

+$44.6

Record

30%

246-584 (830)

Both legs:

Yes$79.9420.1¢+$61.05

No$104.1776.6¢-$16.45

hello.67ARB<$100

Invested

$161.1

Value

$168.45

PnL

+$7.34

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

Both legs:

Yes$78.5127.6¢+$22.53

No$82.5979¢-$15.18

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.12

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$0.32

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$0.73

Record

82%

516-115 (631)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.