Will the highest temperature in Houston be 69°F or below on November 11?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 74¢ · $312 held · ends Nov 11

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$312.2

Combined PnL

$38.03

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 74¢

-23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$211.85

Total Shares995

Combined PnL+$45.46

No5 traders

Total Value$100.35

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$7.43

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 14.2¢	$67.96	$123.41	+$55.45	30% 256-590 (846)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$79.84	$68.08	-$11.76	99% 217-2 (219)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$82.26	$61.65	-$20.61	61% 1144-746 (1890)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$16.16	$26.78	+$10.62	68% 2062-949 (3011)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$25.05	$11.56	+$4.55	54% 445-377 (822)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$10.38	$10.79	+$0.41	81% 525-121 (646)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$6.5	$5.67	-$0.84	66% 4093-2118 (6211)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	$4.05	$4.26	+$0.21	37% 3136-5367 (8503)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$67.96

Value

$123.41

PnL

+$55.45

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.84

Value

$68.08

PnL

-$11.76

Record

99%

217-2 (219)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.26

Value

$61.65

PnL

-$20.61

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.16

Value

$26.78

PnL

+$10.62

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.05

Value

$11.56

PnL

+$4.55

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.38

Value

$10.79

PnL

+$0.41

Record

81%

525-121 (646)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$0.84

Record

66%

4093-2118 (6211)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$0.21

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.