Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 30?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $128 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$128.31
-$7.37
89.9¢ → 85¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $74.05 | $69.79 | -$4.26 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 89.6¢ | $42.09 | $39.95 | -$2.14 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18 | $17 | -$1 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $1.54 | $1.57 | +$0.04 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
Invested
$74.05
Value
$69.79
PnL
-$4.26
Record
57%
13340-10198 (23538)
Invested
$42.09
Value
$39.95
PnL
-$2.14
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$18
Value
$17
PnL
-$1
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
Invested
$1.54
Value
$1.57
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.