Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 29?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $152 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$152.47
$38.97
87.9¢ → 98.3¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock | Noavg 83.1¢ | $258.16 | $94.44 | +$40.89 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $28.29 | $26.98 | -$1.31 | 61% 20767-13185 (33952) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $27.59 | $26.31 | -$1.28 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $4.07 | $4.73 | +$0.66 | 32% 4353-9371 (13724) |
Invested
$258.16
Value
$94.44
PnL
+$40.89
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
balthazar<$100Invested
$28.29
Value
$26.98
PnL
-$1.31
Record
61%
20767-13185 (33952)
Invested
$27.59
Value
$26.31
PnL
-$1.28
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
Invested
$4.07
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.66
Record
32%
4353-9371 (13724)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.