Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 22¢ · $121 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$121.33
-$133.46
62.5¢ → 21.5¢
-66% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $98.14 | $63.01 | -$35.14 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 71.1¢ | $87.02 | $25.8 | -$60.28 | 24% 285-895 (1180) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.4¢ | $45.08 | $17.75 | -$2.15 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 66.8¢ | $104.48 | $12.47 | -$36.34 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $1.85 | $2.3 | +$0.45 | 32% 4353-9371 (13724) |
Invested
$98.14
Value
$63.01
PnL
-$35.14
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$87.02
Value
$25.8
PnL
-$60.28
Record
24%
285-895 (1180)
Invested
$45.08
Value
$17.75
PnL
-$2.15
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
Invested
$104.48
Value
$12.47
PnL
-$36.34
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.45
Record
32%
4353-9371 (13724)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.