Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 29?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 14¢ · $259 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$258.81
$7.54
50.3¢ → 14¢
-72% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $167.54 | $169.84 | +$2.3 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $23.11 | $33.91 | +$10.8 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 56.9¢ | $30.99 | $20.14 | -$1.56 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $21.96 | $20 | -$0.52 | 24% 285-895 (1180) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $14.54 | $12.69 | -$1.85 | 61% 20767-13185 (33952) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $2.23 | -$1.63 | 32% 4353-9371 (13724) |
Invested
$167.54
Value
$169.84
PnL
+$2.3
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
Invested
$23.11
Value
$33.91
PnL
+$10.8
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
Invested
$30.99
Value
$20.14
PnL
-$1.56
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$21.96
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.52
Record
24%
285-895 (1180)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.54
Value
$12.69
PnL
-$1.85
Record
61%
20767-13185 (33952)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$1.63
Record
32%
4353-9371 (13724)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.