Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $444 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$443.86
-$5.84
90.9¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $384.49 | $378.34 | -$6.15 | 61% 1571-1019 (2590) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $35.6 | $36 | +$0.4 | 61% 20632-13069 (33701) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.01 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $8.73 | $8.54 | -$0.19 | 45% 1814-2260 (4074) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.7 | $0.73 | +$0.03 | 53% 6290-5520 (11810) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.18 | $0.25 | +$0.07 | 57% 13017-9926 (22943) |
Invested
$384.49
Value
$378.34
PnL
-$6.15
Record
61%
1571-1019 (2590)
balthazar<$100Invested
$35.6
Value
$36
PnL
+$0.4
Record
61%
20632-13069 (33701)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.01
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Invested
$8.73
Value
$8.54
PnL
-$0.19
Record
45%
1814-2260 (4074)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.73
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
6290-5520 (11810)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.25
PnL
+$0.07
Record
57%
13017-9926 (22943)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.