Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 28?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 2.4¢ · $653 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$652.99
$197.86
53.4¢ → 2.4¢
-96% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $134.61 | $353.91 | +$219.3 | 60% 1580-1035 (2615) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 56.2¢ | $304.42 | $298.03 | -$4.6 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 34.4¢ | $18.14 | $1.05 | -$16.84 | 57% 13102-9987 (23089) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.