Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 9?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $262 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$262.04
-$52.31
90.6¢ → 89¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 91.2¢ | $147.99 | $144.47 | -$3.51 | 50% 65490-65806 (131296) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $95.42 | $63.18 | -$32.24 | 53% 5069-4422 (9491) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $50 | $44.5 | +$0 | 13% 675-4577 (5252) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $26.44 | $9.88 | -$16.56 | 25% 2354-7013 (9367) |
Invested
$147.99
Value
$144.47
PnL
-$3.51
Record
50%
65490-65806 (131296)
Invested
$95.42
Value
$63.18
PnL
-$32.24
Record
53%
5069-4422 (9491)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
675-4577 (5252)
Invested
$26.44
Value
$9.88
PnL
-$16.56
Record
25%
2354-7013 (9367)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.