Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 9?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 91¢ · $154 held · ends Nov 9

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$153.65

Combined PnL

$1.43

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 90.5¢

+22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$124.69

Total Shares141

Combined PnL+$17.84

No2 traders

Total Value$28.96

Total Shares266

Combined PnL-$16.42

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 86.8¢	$53.05	$52.86	-$0.19	46% 6878-8119 (14997)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$42.5	$45.25	+$0.75	13% 675-4577 (5252)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$8.94	$22.47	+$13.53	55% 25968-21274 (47242)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$25.08	$16.43	-$8.65	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 21.1¢	$23.64	$12.53	-$7.77	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$4.11	+$3.75	43% 18503-24146 (42649)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.05

Value

$52.86

PnL

-$0.19

Record

46%

6878-8119 (14997)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.5

Value

$45.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

13%

675-4577 (5252)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.94

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$13.53

Record

55%

25968-21274 (47242)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$25.08

Value

$16.43

PnL

-$8.65

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$23.64

Value

$12.53

PnL

-$7.77

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$3.75

Record

43%

18503-24146 (42649)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.