Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 9?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $970 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$970.37
$100.62
67.7¢ → 99.6¢
+47% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 66.4¢ | $549.91 | $547.16 | -$27.13 | 25% 2354-7013 (9367) |
BI Bilberry | Noavg 64.2¢ | $130.06 | $201.43 | +$71.37 | 53% 5069-4422 (9491) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 90.6¢ | $143.24 | $142.52 | +$12.8 | 50% 65477-65792 (131269) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 43.6¢ | $34.74 | $79.21 | +$44.47 | 55% 25968-21274 (47242) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.93 | $0.05 | -$0.88 | 22% 3328-11802 (15130) |
Invested
$549.91
Value
$547.16
PnL
-$27.13
Record
25%
2354-7013 (9367)
Invested
$130.06
Value
$201.43
PnL
+$71.37
Record
53%
5069-4422 (9491)
Invested
$143.24
Value
$142.52
PnL
+$12.8
Record
50%
65477-65792 (131269)
Invested
$34.74
Value
$79.21
PnL
+$44.47
Record
55%
25968-21274 (47242)
Invested
$0.93
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.88
Record
22%
3328-11802 (15130)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.