Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 3?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$92.36
$0.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $40.5 | $41.17 | +$0.67 | 44% 2775-3595 (6370) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $26.7 | $26.85 | +$0.15 | 63% 12918-7608 (20526) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $13.7 | $13.77 | +$0.08 | 56% 3732-2932 (6664) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $8.01 | $8.06 | +$0.04 | 38% 1387-2298 (3685) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $2.5 | $2.51 | +$0.01 | 59% 218-153 (371) |
Invested
$40.5
Value
$41.17
PnL
+$0.67
Record
44%
2775-3595 (6370)
Invested
$26.7
Value
$26.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
63%
12918-7608 (20526)
Invested
$13.7
Value
$13.77
PnL
+$0.08
Record
56%
3732-2932 (6664)
Invested
$8.01
Value
$8.06
PnL
+$0.04
Record
38%
1387-2298 (3685)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.01
Record
59%
218-153 (371)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.