Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 3?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$0.49
-$44.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $34.97 | $0.43 | -$34.54 | 56% 4264-3413 (7677) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | -$8.47 | 62% 13205-8189 (21394) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.98 | $0.01 | -$0.98 | 50% 472-466 (938) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.62 | $0 | -$0.61 | 48% 2092-2259 (4351) |
Invested
$34.97
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$34.54
Record
56%
4264-3413 (7677)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.47
Record
62%
13205-8189 (21394)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.98
Record
50%
472-466 (938)
Invested
$0.62
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.61
Record
48%
2092-2259 (4351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.