Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on November 2?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $522 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$522.02

Combined PnL

-$20.79

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.7¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$521.25

Total Shares520

Combined PnL-$8.44

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.77

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$12.35

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luciebot	Noavg 98.9¢	$142.35	$143.41	+$1.06	38% 1387-2298 (3685)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658	Noavg 99.2¢	$128.49	$124.01	-$4.48	35% 698-1270 (1968)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 99.4¢	$111.52	$103.67	-$7.85	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$61.24	$61.33	+$0.09	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$50.77	$50.68	-$0.1	38% 680-1090 (1770)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$28.13	$28.41	+$0.28	42% 938-1305 (2243)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$93.75	$9.74	+$2.55	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.46	$0.62	-$12.3	50% 2032-1997 (4029)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.2	$0.15	-$0.05	44% 6422-8027 (14449)

luciebot

Invested

$142.35

Value

$143.41

PnL

+$1.06

Record

38%

1387-2298 (3685)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

Invested

$128.49

Value

$124.01

PnL

-$4.48

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$111.52

Value

$103.67

PnL

-$7.85

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$61.24

Value

$61.33

PnL

+$0.09

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$50.77

Value

$50.68

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$28.13

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$0.28

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$93.75

Value

$9.74

PnL

+$2.55

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$12.3

Record

50%

2032-1997 (4029)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

6422-8027 (14449)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.