Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on November 2?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$170.59
$16.33
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 76.5¢ | $88.8 | $70.01 | -$0.7 | 18% 365-1632 (1997) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.5¢ | $53.54 | $42.01 | -$12.17 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $16.46 | $28 | +$11.47 | |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $59.78 | $59.78 | -$0 | 50% 1907-1873 (3780) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $27.02 | $40.8 | +$16.33 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.