Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 16?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $258 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$257.58
-$0.02
99.6¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $84.68 | $84.75 | +$0.06 | 38% 319-511 (830) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $60.26 | $60.26 | +$0 | 31% 1115-2464 (3579) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $39.87 | $39.88 | +$0.01 | 99% 1580-23 (1603) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $36.45 | $36.45 | +$0 | 52% 900-835 (1735) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $11.11 | $11.11 | +$0 | 47% 1230-1384 (2614) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $9.89 | $9.97 | +$0.08 | 42% 1683-2319 (4002) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $9.95 | $9.97 | +$0.02 | 35% 325-598 (923) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.33 | $5.13 | -$0.19 | 34% 347-663 (1010) |
Invested
$84.68
Value
$84.75
PnL
+$0.06
Record
38%
319-511 (830)
Invested
$60.26
Value
$60.26
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
1115-2464 (3579)
Invested
$39.87
Value
$39.88
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
1580-23 (1603)
Invested
$36.45
Value
$36.45
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
900-835 (1735)
Invested
$11.11
Value
$11.11
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1230-1384 (2614)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$9.97
PnL
+$0.08
Record
42%
1683-2319 (4002)
Invested
$9.95
Value
$9.97
PnL
+$0.02
Record
35%
325-598 (923)
Invested
$5.33
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0.19
Record
34%
347-663 (1010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
god83743894
No — $84.75
mildwindow27
No — $60.26
1DVSBSTD
No — $39.88
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $36.45
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $11.11
haveagoodday
No — $9.97
smallreceipt
No — $9.97
godblessme2026
No — $5.13