Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on November 16?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $440 held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$439.61

Combined PnL

$7.44

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 96.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$439.21

Total Shares453

Combined PnL+$7.78

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.4

Total Shares8

Combined PnL-$0.33

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95¢	$148.2	$151.32	+$3.12	42% 803-1100 (1903)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 94.5¢	$99.25	$101.85	+$2.6	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$68.39	$69.01	+$0.61	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$67.3	$68.33	+$1.03	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97¢	$18.2	$18.2	+$0	38% 317-524 (841)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 95¢	$14.39	$14.7	+$0.3	39% 327-521 (848)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96¢	$10.69	$10.81	+$0.11	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.01	$5.01	+$0	58% 864-619 (1483)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.1	$0.4	-$0.33	24% 788-2560 (3348)

241532532432

Invested

$148.2

Value

$151.32

PnL

+$3.12

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

mildwindow27

Invested

$99.25

Value

$101.85

PnL

+$2.6

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$68.39

Value

$69.01

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$67.3

Value

$68.33

PnL

+$1.03

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.2

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$14.39

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.69

Value

$10.81

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.1

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.33

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.