Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 1 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 16?

1 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (8%) · Yes at 31¢ · $336 held · ends Nov 16

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 8%

Total Value

$335.66

Combined PnL

$22.46

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 12 top traders (8%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$144.36

Total Shares466

Combined PnL+$20.36

No11 traders

Total Value$191.3

Total Shares275

Combined PnL+$2.1

Yes — 8%No — 92%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-75 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 26.6¢	$124	$144.36	+$20.36	43% 55-73 (128)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 72¢	$61.4	$58.65	-$1.86	34% 347-663 (1010)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$29.44	$31.24	+$1.8	42% 783-1092 (1875)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 68¢	$24.86	$25.23	+$0.37	47% 881-992 (1873)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$19.4	$20.12	+$0.72	71% 939-382 (1321)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$16.81	$17.35	+$0.55	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 68¢	$7.58	$7.69	+$0.11	50% 912-916 (1828)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 68¢	$7.1	$7.2	+$0.1	37% 305-523 (828)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.3	$7.1	+$0.8	42% 1683-2319 (4002)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.1	$6.9	-$0.2	35% 325-598 (923)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73¢	$6.46	$6.28	-$0.18	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.64	$3.54	-$0.1	52% 900-835 (1735)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$124

Value

$144.36

PnL

+$20.36

Record

43%

55-73 (128)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$61.4

Value

$58.65

PnL

-$1.86

Record

34%

347-663 (1010)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$29.44

Value

$31.24

PnL

+$1.8

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$24.86

Value

$25.23

PnL

+$0.37

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$20.12

PnL

+$0.72

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$16.81

Value

$17.35

PnL

+$0.55

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.58

Value

$7.69

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.8

Record

42%

1683-2319 (4002)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$7.1

Value

$6.9

PnL

-$0.2

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

900-835 (1735)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 12 top traders (8%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-75 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

8% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.