Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 16?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 48¢ · $116 held · ends Nov 16

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$116.12

Combined PnL

-$3.07

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 47.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$113.43

Total Shares213

Combined PnL-$3.75

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.66

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.68

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$27.29	$26.57	-$0.72	71% 939-382 (1321)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 49.4¢	$24.74	$24.04	-$0.7	42% 783-1092 (1875)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$19.6	$19.2	-$0.4	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$12.33	$11.95	-$0.38	43% 55-73 (128)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$7.28	$7.28	+$0	47% 1230-1384 (2614)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$7.88	$7.27	-$0.61	31% 1115-2464 (3579)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$6.82	$6.82	+$0	57% 831-625 (1456)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$5.4	$4.4	-$1	37% 305-523 (828)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$3.45	$3.45	-$0	49% 844-877 (1721)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.98	$2.66	+$0.68	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.39	$2.44	+$0.05	50% 912-916 (1828)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$27.29

Value

$26.57

PnL

-$0.72

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$24.74

Value

$24.04

PnL

-$0.7

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$12.33

Value

$11.95

PnL

-$0.38

Record

43%

55-73 (128)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1230-1384 (2614)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$7.88

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$0.61

Record

31%

1115-2464 (3579)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.82

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

831-625 (1456)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$1

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2.66

PnL

+$0.68

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.44

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.