Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 16?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 86¢ · $212 held · ends Nov 16

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$211.69

Combined PnL

$8.68

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 86.3¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$204.99

Total Shares232

Combined PnL+$7.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.71

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$1.53

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 83.5¢	$104.37	$110.24	+$5.87	35% 325-598 (923)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 88¢	$36.7	$36.77	+$0.07	58% 859-610 (1469)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87.1¢	$17.42	$17.69	+$0.27	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$17.28	$17.23	-$0.05	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$12.27	$13.23	+$0.96	71% 939-382 (1321)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 88¢	$9.8	$9.83	+$0.02	57% 831-625 (1456)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.36	$2.73	+$1.37	24% 779-2522 (3301)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.7	$1.94	+$1.34	26% 600-1738 (2338)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.2¢	$7.21	$1.18	-$1.03	42% 783-1092 (1875)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$1	$0.86	-$0.14	99% 1580-23 (1603)

smallreceipt

Invested

$104.37

Value

$110.24

PnL

+$5.87

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$36.77

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.42

Value

$17.69

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.28

Value

$17.23

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$12.27

Value

$13.23

PnL

+$0.96

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

831-625 (1456)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$1.37

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.7

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$1.34

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.21

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$1.03

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.14

Record

99%

1580-23 (1603)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.8%

86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.