Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 16?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $288 held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$287.7

Combined PnL

$0.47

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 98.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$287.65

Total Shares292

Combined PnL+$0.47

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99¢	$89.24	$88.75	-$0.49	37% 305-523 (828)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$82.7	$84.15	+$1.45	42% 783-1092 (1875)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99¢	$69.93	$69.38	-$0.54	34% 347-663 (1010)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99¢	$11.03	$10.97	-$0.06	52% 936-867 (1803)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$9.9	+$0	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$9.93	$9.9	-$0.03	35% 325-598 (923)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$9.37	$9.54	+$0.17	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.08	$5.05	-$0.03	47% 881-992 (1873)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$89.24

Value

$88.75

PnL

-$0.49

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$82.7

Value

$84.15

PnL

+$1.45

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$69.93

Value

$69.38

PnL

-$0.54

Record

34%

347-663 (1010)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.03

Value

$10.97

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

936-867 (1803)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.93

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.37

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

881-992 (1873)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.