Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on November 16?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $238 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$237.51

Combined PnL

-$13.71

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$237.2

Total Shares237

Combined PnL+$0.12

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares155

Combined PnL-$13.83

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.92	$84.92	+$0	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$69.91	$69.93	+$0.02	38% 317-524 (841)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$35.51	$35.51	+$0	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.28	$16.28	+$0	60% 874-593 (1467)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.57	$15.57	+$0	36% 332-601 (933)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	39% 327-521 (848)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.09	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.9	$0.24	-$10.66	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.4	$0.05	-$2.35	26% 603-1747 (2350)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.83	$0.02	-$0.81	30% 1175-2733 (3908)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$84.92

Value

$84.92

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$69.91

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$35.51

Value

$35.51

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$15.57

Value

$15.57

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

332-601 (933)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

327-521 (848)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.9

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$10.66

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.35

Record

26%

603-1747 (2350)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.81

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.