Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$169.6

Combined PnL

$0.14

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$169.58

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$1.96

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$1.82

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$49.37	$49.95	+$0.58	36% 286-506 (792)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$42.03	$42.96	+$0.93	33% 80-164 (244)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98¢	$39.19	$39.96	+$0.77	38% 308-501 (809)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$22.74	$23.07	+$0.32	30% 1153-2701 (3854)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.12	$10.12	+$0.01	50% 894-902 (1796)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$2.5	$2.53	+$0.03	99% 1517-23 (1540)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96¢	$36.66	$1	-$0.66	42% 760-1068 (1828)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$2.16	$0.01	-$1	29% 266-655 (921)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	49% 828-850 (1678)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$49.37

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0.58

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

123987456<$100

Invested

$42.03

Value

$42.96

PnL

+$0.93

Record

33%

80-164 (244)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$39.19

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.77

Record

38%

308-501 (809)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$22.74

Value

$23.07

PnL

+$0.32

Record

30%

1153-2701 (3854)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.12

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$36.66

Value

PnL

-$0.66

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1

Record

29%

266-655 (921)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.