Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 15?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 93¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 15

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$263.24

Combined PnL

$24.55

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 92.5¢

+77% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$191.97

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$24.6

Yes3 traders

Total Value$71.27

Total Shares99

Combined PnL-$0.05

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 45¢	$41.95	$77.38	+$35.42	42% 754-1062 (1816)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$60.55	$60.39	-$0.15	71% 917-377 (1294)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$32.07	$25.87	-$6.2	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 44.9¢	$21.14	$19.29	-$1.85	65% 4350-2373 (6723)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 54¢	$21.6	$16.4	-$5.2	38% 306-501 (807)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$7.92	$13.44	+$5.52	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$23.99	$11.2	-$5.15	30% 251-582 (833)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.62	$9.52	-$0.1	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 70¢	$7.11	$9.45	+$2.34	57% 800-608 (1408)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$6.95	$7.3	+$0.35	46% 3003-3542 (6545)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.86	$4.76	-$0.1	51% 901-849 (1750)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.73	$4.66	-$0.08	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$3.82	$3.58	-$0.24	49% 877-897 (1774)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$41.95

Value

$77.38

PnL

+$35.42

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.55

Value

$60.39

PnL

-$0.15

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$32.07

Value

$25.87

PnL

-$6.2

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$21.14

Value

$19.29

PnL

-$1.85

Record

65%

4350-2373 (6723)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$5.2

Record

38%

306-501 (807)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$13.44

PnL

+$5.52

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$23.99

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$5.15

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.62

Value

$9.52

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.11

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$2.34

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$0.35

Record

46%

3003-3542 (6545)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.58

PnL

-$0.24

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.