Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 15?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 53¢ · $490 held · ends Nov 15

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$490.02

Combined PnL

$77.33

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$85.81

Total Shares129

Combined PnL+$26.25

No9 traders

Total Value$134.88

Total Shares218

Combined PnL+$51.08

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$206.63	$203.75	-$2.88	71% 919-377 (1296)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.7¢	$146.24	$119.26	-$26.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.4¢	$60.39	$84.49	+$24.1
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225ARB<$100	Noavg 53.6¢	$53.4	$65.58	+$12.18	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.6¢	$31.87	$35.4	+$3.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.9¢	$21.53	$30.18	+$8.65
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 60¢	$197.01	$48.19	+$3.13	42% 760-1068 (1828)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$27.31	$30.35	+$3.04	50% 894-902 (1796)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 57.3¢	$29.9	$28.16	-$1.74	47% 870-964 (1834)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$7.65	$27	+$19.35	40% 47-70 (117)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 50.4¢	$16.69	$19.06	+$2.37	58% 839-597 (1436)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$26.54	$15.18	-$0.26	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 67¢	$20.92	$11.93	+$3.74	24% 762-2435 (3197)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 46¢	$18.4	$10.7	+$10.61	43% 5181-7002 (12183)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$6.85	$10.62	+$3.77	53% 882-796 (1678)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 63.7¢	$9.13	$7.67	-$1.46	52% 916-856 (1772)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 35.3¢	$6.07	$7.32	+$1.25	57% 812-615 (1427)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 59¢	$74.18	$4.52	+$33.55	49% 828-850 (1678)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$206.63

Value

$203.75

PnL

-$2.88

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

Both legs:

No$146.2468.7¢-$26.98

Yes$60.3931.4¢+$24.1

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225ARB<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$65.58

PnL

+$12.18

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

Both legs:

Invested

$197.01

Value

$48.19

PnL

+$3.13

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$27.31

Value

$30.35

PnL

+$3.04

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$29.9

Value

$28.16

PnL

-$1.74

Record

47%

870-964 (1834)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$27

PnL

+$19.35

Record

40%

47-70 (117)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$16.69

Value

$19.06

PnL

+$2.37

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.54

Value

$15.18

PnL

-$0.26

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$20.92

Value

$11.93

PnL

+$3.74

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$10.7

PnL

+$10.61

Record

43%

5181-7002 (12183)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.85

Value

$10.62

PnL

+$3.77

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.13

Value

$7.67

PnL

-$1.46

Record

52%

916-856 (1772)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$1.25

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$74.18

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$33.55

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.