Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 15?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $315 held · ends Nov 15

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$315.49

Combined PnL

-$25.56

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 66.8¢

-19% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$315.49

Total Shares413

Combined PnL-$25.56

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78¢	$77.98	$61.1	-$16.88	71% 917-377 (1294)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 74.6¢	$113.59	$55.38	-$14.46	53% 2122-1900 (4022)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$38.72	$39.24	+$0.52	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$39.16	$39.24	+$0.08	34% 303-590 (893)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97¢	$22.4	$22.65	+$0.25	36% 286-506 (792)
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.1¢	$218.68	$21.57	+$1.41	42% 754-1062 (1816)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$13.84	$15.74	+$1.9	43% 5159-6926 (12085)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$13.26	$15.7	+$2.43	65% 4350-2373 (6723)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$9.76	$9.81	+$0.05	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$11.39	$9.38	-$2.01	58% 820-591 (1411)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 63.6¢	$6.51	$6.18	-$0.33	51% 901-849 (1750)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 63.6¢	$6.49	$6.16	-$0.33	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$3.91	$4.52	+$0.61	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$3.85	$4.44	+$0.59	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$3.79	$4.37	+$0.59	52% 865-790 (1655)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$77.98

Value

$61.1

PnL

-$16.88

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

ghorrock

Invested

$113.59

Value

$55.38

PnL

-$14.46

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$38.72

Value

$39.24

PnL

+$0.52

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.16

Value

$39.24

PnL

+$0.08

Record

34%

303-590 (893)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$22.4

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$0.25

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

241532532432

Invested

$218.68

Value

$21.57

PnL

+$1.41

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$13.84

Value

$15.74

PnL

+$1.9

Record

43%

5159-6926 (12085)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$13.26

Value

$15.7

PnL

+$2.43

Record

65%

4350-2373 (6723)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.76

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.39

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$2.01

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.18

PnL

-$0.33

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.49

Value

$6.16

PnL

-$0.33

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.91

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.59

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.59

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.9%

66.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.