Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $40 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$40.34

Combined PnL

-$71.77

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$39.98

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.36

Total Shares721

Combined PnL-$71.79

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.99	+$0.02	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$10	+$0.01	34% 263-521 (784)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$38.64	$0.21	-$38.42	58% 703-504 (1207)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.35	$0.05	-$8.3	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.82	$0.04	-$6.78	27% 673-1791 (2464)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.46	$0.02	-$4.44	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.72	$0.02	-$3.61	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.83	$0.01	-$1.82	31% 146-327 (473)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$65.75	$0.01	-$7.56	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.86	$0	-$0.86	37% 1518-2567 (4085)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

34%

263-521 (784)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.64

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$38.42

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.35

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.3

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.82

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.78

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.44

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.72

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.61

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.75

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.56

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

PnL

-$0.86

Record

37%

1518-2567 (4085)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.