Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 14?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 100¢ · $151 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$151.17

Combined PnL

-$41.21

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$150.94

Total Shares151

Combined PnL+$0.47

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares452

Combined PnL-$41.69

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$39.7	$39.96	+$0.26	53% 6903-6063 (12966)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$39.82	$39.96	+$0.14	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$36.62	$36.64	+$0.02	48% 762-815 (1577)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.01	$15.02	+$0.01	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.99	$10.99	+$0	51% 746-711 (1457)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.82	$5.85	+$0.03	34% 231-458 (689)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.5	$2.52	+$0.02	99% 1213-13 (1226)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.55	$0.14	-$25.4	58% 703-504 (1207)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.64	$0.03	-$5.61	27% 673-1791 (2464)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.46	$0.02	-$4.44	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.67	$0.02	-$3.56	29% 3160-7827 (10987)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.83	$0.01	-$1.82	31% 146-327 (473)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.86	$0	-$0.86	37% 1516-2567 (4083)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.7

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

6903-6063 (12966)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$39.82

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.14

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$36.62

Value

$36.64

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$15.01

Value

$15.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.99

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.55

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$25.4

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.64

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.61

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.44

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.67

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.56

Record

29%

3160-7827 (10987)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.82

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

PnL

-$0.86

Record

37%

1516-2567 (4083)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.