Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 14

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$176.25

Combined PnL

-$6.47

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 92.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$164.4

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$9.5

Yes2 traders

Total Value$11.85

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$3.03

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.9¢	$178.91	$51.93	-$6.98	39% 579-908 (1487)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$32.35	$32.16	-$0.2	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97¢	$29.1	$27.33	-$1.77	31% 225-501 (726)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$18.22	$18.52	+$0.3	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 93.9¢	$10.91	$10.76	-$0.15	26% 544-1530 (2074)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$9.11	$9.26	+$0.15	29% 60-149 (209)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$9.72	$9.11	-$0.61	27% 200-540 (740)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$4.36	$7.7	+$3.34	40% 32-49 (81)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$5.58	$5.34	-$0.24	27% 976-2603 (3579)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.46	$4.15	-$0.31	57% 2248-1724 (3972)

241532532432

Invested

$178.91

Value

$51.93

PnL

-$6.98

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.35

Value

$32.16

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.1

Value

$27.33

PnL

-$1.77

Record

31%

225-501 (726)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.22

Value

$18.52

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$10.91

Value

$10.76

PnL

-$0.15

Record

26%

544-1530 (2074)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.11

Value

$9.26

PnL

+$0.15

Record

29%

60-149 (209)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.72

Value

$9.11

PnL

-$0.61

Record

27%

200-540 (740)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.36

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$3.34

Record

40%

32-49 (81)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$0.24

Record

27%

976-2603 (3579)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$0.31

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.