Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 14?

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 92¢ · $459 held · ends Nov 14

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$459.09

Combined PnL

$32.58

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 91.5¢

+32% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$392.58

Total Shares509

Combined PnL+$42.83

Yes4 traders

Total Value$66.48

Total Shares309

Combined PnL-$10.26

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bilberry	Noavg 59.4¢	$124	$156.55	+$32.55	40% 36-54 (90)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.7¢	$89.98	$44.38	-$15.22	40% 620-939 (1559)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$48.01	$39.91	-$2.58	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$30.63	$30.93	+$0.3	48% 757-814 (1571)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$23.8	$30	+$6.2	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$27.1	$27.31	+$0.21	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$20.07	$19.78	-$0.29	51% 782-754 (1536)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$15.35	$15.62	+$0.27	27% 667-1774 (2441)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 79¢	$23.7	$15.2	+$2.89	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$15	$14.25	-$0.25	65% 4289-2310 (6599)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74¢	$10.53	$9.39	+$1.29	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.95	$7.74	-$0.2	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.92	$7.71	-$0.2	50% 697-689 (1386)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.8	$7.5	-$0.3	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$6.81	$6.46	-$0.35	58% 679-500 (1179)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.83	$5.43	+$3.6	31% 146-327 (473)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.86	$4.78	-$0.08	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.73	$4.67	-$0.06	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$19.43	$4.63	+$2.36	58% 699-503 (1202)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.57	$4.4	+$0.82	34% 263-518 (781)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$2.43	+$1.61	18% 853-3894 (4747)

Bilberry

Invested

$124

Value

$156.55

PnL

+$32.55

Record

40%

36-54 (90)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.98

Value

$44.38

PnL

-$15.22

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$48.01

Value

$39.91

PnL

-$2.58

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$30.63

Value

$30.93

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$23.8

Value

$30

PnL

+$6.2

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$27.1

Value

$27.31

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.07

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$15.62

PnL

+$0.27

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$2.89

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

65%

4289-2310 (6599)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$1.29

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

$7.74

PnL

-$0.2

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$7.71

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.83

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$3.6

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.08

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$0.06

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$19.43

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$2.36

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$3.57

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.82

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$1.61

Record

18%

853-3894 (4747)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.