Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 14?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 43¢ · $359 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$359.48
$43.97
38.1¢ → 42.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 33.8¢ | $99.34 | $132.14 | +$32.8 | 57% 2248-1724 (3972) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $64 | $71.38 | +$7.38 | 40% 32-49 (81) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.8¢ | $53.72 | $59.3 | +$5.58 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $46.29 | $39.17 | -$4.87 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $15 | $17.4 | +$2.4 | 30% 189-443 (632) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.2¢ | $15.69 | $16.74 | +$1.05 | 73% 795-298 (1093) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $11.6 | $11.4 | -$0.2 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $6.74 | $6.57 | -$0.17 | 26% 544-1530 (2074) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.5¢ | $7.38 | $5.38 | +$0 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
Invested
$99.34
Value
$132.14
PnL
+$32.8
Record
57%
2248-1724 (3972)
Invested
$64
Value
$71.38
PnL
+$7.38
Record
40%
32-49 (81)
Invested
$53.72
Value
$59.3
PnL
+$5.58
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$46.29
Value
$39.17
PnL
-$4.87
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
Invested
$15
Value
$17.4
PnL
+$2.4
Record
30%
189-443 (632)
Invested
$15.69
Value
$16.74
PnL
+$1.05
Record
73%
795-298 (1093)
Invested
$11.6
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$6.74
Value
$6.57
PnL
-$0.17
Record
26%
544-1530 (2074)
Invested
$7.38
Value
$5.38
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.