Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 90¢ · $585 held · ends Nov 14

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$584.92

Combined PnL

$117.76

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 89.5¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$583.88

Total Shares647

Combined PnL+$117.55

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.04

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0.22

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 70.9¢	$452.21	$404.86	+$93.16	57% 2248-1724 (3972)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 71¢	$84.8	$94.5	+$19.8	39% 579-908 (1487)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 78¢	$23.4	$27	+$3.6	30% 993-2362 (3355)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18	$17.9	-$0.1	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78.9¢	$15.36	$14.95	-$0.42	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 90¢	$10.46	$10.4	-$0.06	26% 544-1530 (2074)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$9	+$1.5	27% 976-2603 (3579)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 89¢	$5.22	$5.27	+$0.06	27% 200-540 (740)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$1.04	+$0.22	18% 838-3822 (4660)

hello.67

Invested

$452.21

Value

$404.86

PnL

+$93.16

Record

57%

2248-1724 (3972)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$84.8

Value

$94.5

PnL

+$19.8

Record

39%

579-908 (1487)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$23.4

Value

$27

PnL

+$3.6

Record

30%

993-2362 (3355)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$17.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.36

Value

$14.95

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$10.46

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.06

Record

26%

544-1530 (2074)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

PnL

+$1.5

Record

27%

976-2603 (3579)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$0.06

Record

27%

200-540 (740)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.22

Record

18%

838-3822 (4660)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.