Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 14?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $460 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$460.42
$9.84
95.5¢ → 98.2¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $336.98 | $352.44 | +$15.46 | 39% 579-908 (1487) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $35.23 | $35.5 | +$0.27 | 41% 1573-2277 (3850) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $19.89 | $19.86 | +$0.21 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.62 | -$0.18 | 53% 6646-5820 (12466) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $11.52 | $11.41 | -$0.11 | 26% 544-1530 (2074) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $9.8 | $9.9 | +$0.1 | 30% 189-443 (632) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $9.93 | $9.82 | -$0.11 | 29% 3101-7566 (10667) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $7.21 | $1.16 | -$2.05 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.46 | $0.71 | -$3.75 | 57% 2248-1724 (3972) |
Invested
$336.98
Value
$352.44
PnL
+$15.46
Record
39%
579-908 (1487)
Invested
$35.23
Value
$35.5
PnL
+$0.27
Record
41%
1573-2277 (3850)
Invested
$19.89
Value
$19.86
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.62
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
6646-5820 (12466)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$11.41
PnL
-$0.11
Record
26%
544-1530 (2074)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$9.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
30%
189-443 (632)
Invested
$9.93
Value
$9.82
PnL
-$0.11
Record
29%
3101-7566 (10667)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$7.21
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$2.05
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$3.75
Record
57%
2248-1724 (3972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.