Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 13?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 78¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$168.56
$2.98
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $60.49 | $60.49 | +$0 | 32% 19-41 (60) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | $48.76 | $49.7 | +$0.94 | 76% 672-216 (888) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $17.89 | $18.36 | +$0.47 | 46% 539-625 (1164) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $15.31 | +$0.31 | 53% 6074-5439 (11513) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $9.75 | $12.06 | +$2.31 | 53% 920-807 (1727) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $7.8 | $7.66 | -$0.14 | 47% 522-594 (1116) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $5.89 | $4.98 | -$0.91 | 36% 414-750 (1164) |
Invested
$60.49
Value
$60.49
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
19-41 (60)
Invested
$48.76
Value
$49.7
PnL
+$0.94
Record
76%
672-216 (888)
Invested
$17.89
Value
$18.36
PnL
+$0.47
Record
46%
539-625 (1164)
Invested
$15
Value
$15.31
PnL
+$0.31
Record
53%
6074-5439 (11513)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$12.06
PnL
+$2.31
Record
53%
920-807 (1727)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$7.66
PnL
-$0.14
Record
47%
522-594 (1116)
Invested
$5.89
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.91
Record
36%
414-750 (1164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.