Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 13?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 53¢ · $571 held · ends Nov 13

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$570.67

Combined PnL

$44.4

Smart Money Entry

48.6¢ → 53¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$557.76

Total Shares1,054

Combined PnL+$45.47

Yes1 trader

Total Value$12.91

Total Shares27

Combined PnL-$1.07

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 49¢	$361.63	$391.13	+$29.5	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
24 241532532432	Noavg 47.8¢	$127.93	$141.71	+$13.78	35% 407-742 (1149)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.9¢	$13.98	$12.91	-$1.07	76% 662-214 (876)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 47¢	$9.4	$10.6	+$1.2	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 46.7¢	$6.36	$6.41	+$0.05	53% 905-797 (1702)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.39	$2.69	+$0.3	62% 463-283 (746)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.28	$2.62	+$0.35	47% 518-588 (1106)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.3	$2.59	+$0.29	45% 512-638 (1150)

hello.67

Invested

$361.63

Value

$391.13

PnL

+$29.5

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

241532532432

Invested

$127.93

Value

$141.71

PnL

+$13.78

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.98

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$1.07

Record

76%

662-214 (876)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.41

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$0.3

Record

62%

463-283 (746)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

518-588 (1106)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.29

Record

45%

512-638 (1150)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.