Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $358 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$357.67
$1.75
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.8¢ | $299.42 | $299.7 | +$0.28 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $23.62 | $23.62 | +$0 | 14% 55-329 (384) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.45 | $20.45 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $11.99 | $11.99 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.45 | $1.91 | +$1.46 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
Invested
$299.42
Value
$299.7
PnL
+$0.28
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$23.62
Value
$23.62
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
55-329 (384)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$20.45
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$11.99
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
$1.91
PnL
+$1.46
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.