Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$131.76
-$0.51
99.2¢ → 98.6¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $42.88 | $42.68 | -$0.2 | 21% 63-241 (304) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $28.49 | $28.35 | -$0.14 | 25% 847-2482 (3329) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $20.39 | $20.27 | -$0.12 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $19.82 | $19.81 | -$0.01 | 51% 4602-4505 (9107) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $11.89 | $11.88 | -$0.01 | 78% 316-88 (404) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $8.8 | $8.77 | -$0.04 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
Invested
$42.88
Value
$42.68
PnL
-$0.2
Record
21%
63-241 (304)
Invested
$28.49
Value
$28.35
PnL
-$0.14
Record
25%
847-2482 (3329)
Invested
$20.39
Value
$20.27
PnL
-$0.12
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.82
Value
$19.81
PnL
-$0.01
Record
51%
4602-4505 (9107)
Invested
$11.89
Value
$11.88
PnL
-$0.01
Record
78%
316-88 (404)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$8.77
PnL
-$0.04
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.