Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on November 12?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 91¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$62.26
$2.62
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18.42 | $18.83 | +$0.41 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $18.48 | $18.4 | -$0.08 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $5.64 | $7.87 | +$2.23 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $6.93 | $6.93 | +$0 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $5.46 | $5.52 | +$0.06 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.7 | $4.7 | -$0 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
Invested
$18.42
Value
$18.83
PnL
+$0.41
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.48
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$0.08
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$7.87
PnL
+$2.23
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$6.93
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$5.46
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$0.06
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.