Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on November 12?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 56¢ · $120 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$119.98
-$1.32
56.1¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $55.25 | $56.36 | +$1.11 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $16.17 | $16.18 | +$0.01 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 53.2¢ | $12.58 | $13 | +$0.42 | 25% 845-2482 (3327) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $14.12 | $11.26 | -$2.87 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $11 | +$0.4 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $6.48 | $6.6 | +$0.12 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.34 | $2.83 | -$0.51 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $2.76 | $2.76 | +$0 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
Invested
$55.25
Value
$56.36
PnL
+$1.11
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$16.17
Value
$16.18
PnL
+$0.01
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$12.58
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.42
Record
25%
845-2482 (3327)
Invested
$14.12
Value
$11.26
PnL
-$2.87
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
balthazar<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.4
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$6.48
Value
$6.6
PnL
+$0.12
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$3.34
Value
$2.83
PnL
-$0.51
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$2.76
Value
$2.76
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.