Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 58¢ · $44 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$44.25
$0.99
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $11.88 | $12.29 | +$0.41 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $11.12 | $11.12 | -$0 | 25% 845-2482 (3327) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $7.2 | $7.2 | -$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $4.77 | $5.4 | +$0.63 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $5.18 | $5.18 | -$0 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.12 | $3.07 | -$0.05 | 20% 61-241 (302) |
Invested
$11.88
Value
$12.29
PnL
+$0.41
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$11.12
Value
$11.12
PnL
-$0
Record
25%
845-2482 (3327)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.63
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$5.18
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
Invested
$3.12
Value
$3.07
PnL
-$0.05
Record
20%
61-241 (302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.