Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on November 12?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$125.76
$2.52
92.5¢ → 94¢
+2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $45.92 | $45.62 | -$0.3 | 27% 923-2513 (3436) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $16.99 | $19.45 | +$2.46 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $12.63 | $12.49 | -$0.13 | 29% 871-2138 (3009) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $11.28 | $11.4 | +$0.12 | 78% 316-88 (404) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $10.77 | $11.27 | +$0.5 | 54% 493-423 (916) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $8.45 | $8.36 | -$0.09 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $7.6 | $7.52 | -$0.08 | 39% 1259-1997 (3256) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $4.75 | $4.85 | +$0.1 | 22% 80-280 (360) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.85 | $4.8 | -$0.05 | 21% 63-241 (304) |
Invested
$45.92
Value
$45.62
PnL
-$0.3
Record
27%
923-2513 (3436)
Invested
$16.99
Value
$19.45
PnL
+$2.46
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$12.63
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$0.13
Record
29%
871-2138 (3009)
Invested
$11.28
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$0.12
Record
78%
316-88 (404)
Invested
$10.77
Value
$11.27
PnL
+$0.5
Record
54%
493-423 (916)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$8.36
PnL
-$0.09
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
Invested
$7.6
Value
$7.52
PnL
-$0.08
Record
39%
1259-1997 (3256)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.1
Record
22%
80-280 (360)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.05
Record
21%
63-241 (304)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.