Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$144.82
-$0.03
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.92 | +$0 | 99% 224-2 (226) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $23.62 | $23.59 | -$0.02 | 13% 55-372 (427) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.45 | $20.45 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $11.99 | $11.99 | +$0 | 78% 316-88 (404) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.88 | $8.87 | -$0.01 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.92
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
224-2 (226)
Invested
$23.62
Value
$23.59
PnL
-$0.02
Record
13%
55-372 (427)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$20.45
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$11.99
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
316-88 (404)
Invested
$8.88
Value
$8.87
PnL
-$0.01
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.