Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$155.95
$0.08
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $99.82 | $99.9 | +$0.08 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.45 | $20.45 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.51 | $18.51 | +$0 | 22% 78-279 (357) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $11.99 | $11.99 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.1 | $5.1 | +$0 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
Invested
$99.82
Value
$99.9
PnL
+$0.08
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$20.45
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$18.51
Value
$18.51
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
78-279 (357)
Invested
$11.99
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.